Kentucky’s places four players in the top 50 compared to UNC’s three in the top 50.
Terrence Jones #4
Anthony Davis #21
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist #29
Doron Lamb #43
Marquis Teague #62
Since 2000, five freshmen have been named first team All-Americans. In their would-be sophomore seasons, Kevin Love,Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant, and John Wall were all in the NBA. In his first season as a pro Love finished in the top 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Beasley and Wall made first team All-Rookie. Durant was Rookie of the Year. In other words all of them were successful right away in the NBA. And Sullinger is still here. That's why I ultimately couldn't talk myself into putting him anywhere but No 1.
2. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina (So., SF)
If I went with my gut I'd probably put Barnes at the top of this list. Luke Winn has a couple of graphs that explain the Barnes-over-Sullinger argument faster than I can. Based on offensive rating and possession percentage, Barnes rates with Jeffery Taylor, Jared Cunningham, Draymond Green, and Darius Johnson-Odom. There were times last season when Barnes looked timid, mechanical, and frustrated. Ranking him here is an acknowledgement that those times existed, but the overwhelming majority of his adjustment period was mental rather than physical. And since he was mentally fine at the end of 2011, the improvement was entirely real. Jeremy Lamb's late-season surge, by contrast, felt like a young player just starting to click on all cylinders. I wouldn't think it unreasonable to claim that Lamb just got hot at the time everyone's eyes were on him. If Lamb is no better than a second-team all-conference performer, I'd understand. If Barnes is no better than that, I'll be floored.
If I went with my gut I'd probably put Barnes at the top of this list. Luke Winn has a couple of graphs that explain the Barnes-over-Sullinger argument faster than I can. Based on offensive rating and possession percentage, Barnes rates with Jeffery Taylor, Jared Cunningham, Draymond Green, and Darius Johnson-Odom. There were times last season when Barnes looked timid, mechanical, and frustrated. Ranking him here is an acknowledgement that those times existed, but the overwhelming majority of his adjustment period was mental rather than physical. And since he was mentally fine at the end of 2011, the improvement was entirely real. Jeremy Lamb's late-season surge, by contrast, felt like a young player just starting to click on all cylinders. I wouldn't think it unreasonable to claim that Lamb just got hot at the time everyone's eyes were on him. If Lamb is no better than a second-team all-conference performer, I'd understand. If Barnes is no better than that, I'll be floored.
3. Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (Sr., PG)
Taylor led Division I in assist-to-turnover ratio in 2011, placing second nationally in turnover rate and finishing comfortably in the top 100 in assist rate. He shot 43 percent on 175 three-pointers and 83 percent on 185 free throws -- and of course that's an even heavier offensive load than it sounds due to Wisconsin's glacial pace. He made noticeable contributions on the defensive boards and received an All-Defense nod from the Big Ten. The one question mark with Taylor's game is shooting inside the arc, where he has some issues finishing and doesn't shoot quite well enough from mid-range (despite taking a lot of mid-range jumpers). Really, though, the argument for Taylor comes down to this: Last year, he had a higher offensive rating than Jared Sullinger while using more possessions. And he made the All-Defense team while Sullinger didn't. It's tough to come up with a reason to rank him below number three.
Taylor led Division I in assist-to-turnover ratio in 2011, placing second nationally in turnover rate and finishing comfortably in the top 100 in assist rate. He shot 43 percent on 175 three-pointers and 83 percent on 185 free throws -- and of course that's an even heavier offensive load than it sounds due to Wisconsin's glacial pace. He made noticeable contributions on the defensive boards and received an All-Defense nod from the Big Ten. The one question mark with Taylor's game is shooting inside the arc, where he has some issues finishing and doesn't shoot quite well enough from mid-range (despite taking a lot of mid-range jumpers). Really, though, the argument for Taylor comes down to this: Last year, he had a higher offensive rating than Jared Sullinger while using more possessions. And he made the All-Defense team while Sullinger didn't. It's tough to come up with a reason to rank him below number three.
4. Terrence Jones, Kentucky (So.,PF)
Jones's decision to return for his sophomore year surprised me more than any other player's. The lefty made first team All-SEC, was high on every draft board, and spent his freshman year under John Calipari. It seemed like a given he'd be playing NBA ball this November (or at least waiting for the lockout to end). But fresh off co-leading a young team to the Final Four, he's still at UK. Jones is a very good rebounder who can get to the line and rarely turns the ball over. His shooting percentages last year were just 47/33/65; if he lives up to this billing it'll be because those numbers improve. He projects to have significantly scarier frontcourt mates in 2012, where the departed Josh Harrellson and DeAndre Liggins will be replaced with top-3-ranked freshmen Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Anthony Davis. Defenses won't be able to key in on Jones like they could last year. With a little more help and slightly smarter shot selection, he should be SEC Player of the Year.
Jones's decision to return for his sophomore year surprised me more than any other player's. The lefty made first team All-SEC, was high on every draft board, and spent his freshman year under John Calipari. It seemed like a given he'd be playing NBA ball this November (or at least waiting for the lockout to end). But fresh off co-leading a young team to the Final Four, he's still at UK. Jones is a very good rebounder who can get to the line and rarely turns the ball over. His shooting percentages last year were just 47/33/65; if he lives up to this billing it'll be because those numbers improve. He projects to have significantly scarier frontcourt mates in 2012, where the departed Josh Harrellson and DeAndre Liggins will be replaced with top-3-ranked freshmen Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Anthony Davis. Defenses won't be able to key in on Jones like they could last year. With a little more help and slightly smarter shot selection, he should be SEC Player of the Year.
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